Rochdale
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 75% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 26.9% | 25.3% | 22.7% | 11.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.6 | 23.1%+2.2 | 5.0%+17.8 | 20.4%−9.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,444 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 65.7% |
Current member
Paul Waugh · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 3.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Waugh Elected | Labour | 13,027 | 32.8 |
| George Galloway | Other | 11,587 | 29.2 |
| Michael Howard | Reform UK | 6,773 | 17.1 |
| Paul Ellison | Conservative | 4,273 | 10.8 |
| Andy Kelly | Lib Dems | 2,816 | 7.1 |
| Martyn Savin | Green | 1,212 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Oldham East and Saddleworth Reform UK, toss-up
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Ashton-under-Lyne Labour, toss-up
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated