Heywood and Middleton North
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heywood and Middleton North | 32.8% | 31.5% | 15.3% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.7 | 24.3%+7.2 | 20.4%−5.1 | 5.0%+5.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,554 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 69.8% |
Current member
Mrs Elsie Blundell · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.4 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elsie Blundell Elected | Labour | 15,069 | 40.6 |
| Steve Potter | Reform UK | 8,987 | 24.2 |
| Laura-Beth Thompson | Conservative | 6,423 | 17.3 |
| Chris Furlong | Other | 4,349 | 11.7 |
| Tom Shaw | Lib Dems | 2,302 | 6.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackley and Middleton South Labour, safe seat
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton Reform UK, toss-up
- Manchester Central Labour, safe seat
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Rochdale Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated