Bury North
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bury North | 33.6% | 24.6% | 24.2% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+9.3 | 23.1%+1.6 | 20.4%+3.8 | 10.4%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,270 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Mr James Frith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Frith Elected | Labour | 19,625 | 43.1 |
| James Daly | Conservative | 12,681 | 27.9 |
| Lynda Rosewell | Reform UK | 7,385 | 16.2 |
| Shafat Ali | Other | 1,917 | 4.2 |
| Owain Sutton | Green | 1,747 | 3.8 |
| Mark Alcock | Lib Dems | 1,317 | 2.9 |
| Anwarul Haq | Other | 571 | 1.3 |
| Spencer Donnelly | Other | 277 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Salford Labour, safe seat
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated