Rossendale and Darwen
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rossendale and Darwen | 30.4% | 29.9% | 24.4% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.4 | 24.3%+5.6 | 20.4%+4.0 | 10.4%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,505 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
Current member
Andy MacNae · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andy MacNae Elected | Labour | 18,247 | 40.9 |
| Jake Berry | Conservative | 12,619 | 28.3 |
| Daniel Matchett | Reform UK | 9,695 | 21.7 |
| Bob Bauld | Green | 2,325 | 5.2 |
| Rowan Fitton | Lib Dems | 1,241 | 2.8 |
| Tayab Ali | Other | 491 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Bury South Labour, safe seat
- Bolton South and Walkden Labour, toss-up
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated