Hyndburn
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 48%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyndburn | 30.1% | 24.4% | 24.0% | 15.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+7.0 | 24.3%+0.1 | 20.4%+3.6 | 10.4%+5.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,059 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 65.9% |
Current member
Sarah Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Smith Elected | Labour | 12,186 | 33.5 |
| Sara Britcliffe | Conservative | 10,499 | 28.9 |
| Richard Oakley | Reform UK | 7,541 | 20.7 |
| Shabir Fazal | Green | 4,938 | 13.6 |
| Beth Waller-Slack | Lib Dems | 1,210 | 3.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Burnley Reform UK, competitive
- Blackburn Other, safe seat
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Pendle and Clitheroe Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated