Burnley
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 32%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 29.4% | 23.7% | 19.4% | 16.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+6.3 | 24.3%−0.6 | 10.3%+9.1 | 20.4%−3.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,444 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 68.8% |
Current member
Oliver Ryan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.6 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ryan Elected | Labour | 12,598 | 31.7 |
| Gordon Birtwistle | Lib Dems | 9,178 | 23.1 |
| Antony Higginbotham | Conservative | 8,058 | 20.3 |
| Nathan McCollum | Reform UK | 7,755 | 19.5 |
| Jack Launer | Green | 1,518 | 3.8 |
| Rayyan Fiass | Other | 292 | 0.7 |
| Mitchell Cryer | Other | 169 | 0.4 |
| David Roper | Other | 151 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Pendle and Clitheroe Reform UK, toss-up
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochdale Labour, toss-up
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated