Pendle and Clitheroe
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 65% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pendle and Clitheroe | 28.4% | 27.5% | 25.0% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.3 | 20.4%+7.1 | 24.3%+0.7 | 5.0%+2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,926 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 87.6% |
Current member
Jonathan Hinder · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Hinder Elected | Labour | 16,129 | 34.5 |
| Andrew Stephenson | Conservative | 15,227 | 32.6 |
| Victoria Fletcher | Reform UK | 8,171 | 17.5 |
| Zulfikar Khan | Other | 3,108 | 6.7 |
| Anna Fryer | Lib Dems | 2,039 | 4.4 |
| Lex Kristan | Green | 1,421 | 3.0 |
| Syed Hashmi | Other | 336 | 0.7 |
| Christopher Thompson | Other | 190 | 0.4 |
| Tony Johnson | Other | 133 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Burnley Reform UK, competitive
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Bury North Labour, safe seat
- Blackburn Other, safe seat
- Heywood and Middleton North Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated