Blackburn
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn | 38.9% | 21.2% | 20.8% | 9.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+33.9 | 23.1%−1.8 | 24.3%−3.5 | 20.4%−11.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 113,580 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 59.8% |
Current member
Mr Adnan Hussain · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 19.8 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 17.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adnan Hussain Elected | Other | 10,518 | 27.1 |
| Kate Hollern | Labour | 10,386 | 26.7 |
| Craig Murray | Other | 7,105 | 18.3 |
| Tommy Temperley | Reform UK | 4,844 | 12.5 |
| Jamie McGowan | Conservative | 3,474 | 8.9 |
| Denise Morgan | Green | 1,416 | 3.6 |
| Adam Waller-Slack | Lib Dems | 689 | 1.8 |
| Tiger Patel | Other | 369 | 1.0 |
| Natasha Shah | Other | 86 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hyndburn Reform UK, toss-up
- Ribble Valley Conservative, toss-up
- Chorley Other, safe seat
- Rossendale and Darwen Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton North East Reform UK, toss-up
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated