Chorley
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives another party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 48.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Other | Green | Reform UK | SNP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 72.0% | 24.0% | 3.5% | 0.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 5.0%+67.0 | 10.4%+13.6 | 23.1%−19.6 | 2.9%−2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,709 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 82.8% |
Current member
Sir Lindsay Hoyle · Speaker
Previous election (2024)
Another party won by 72.5 points.
Our current projection: another party ahead by 48.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsay Hoyle Elected | Other | 25,238 | 74.3 |
| Mark Tebbutt | Green | 4,663 | 13.7 |
| Ben Holden-Crowther | Other | 2,424 | 7.1 |
| Graham Moore | Other | 1,007 | 3.0 |
| Martin Powell-Davies | Other | 632 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Blackburn Other, safe seat
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Southport Labour, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated