Preston
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 29.4% | 23.4% | 19.0% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+5.2 | 23.1%+0.3 | 5.0%+14.0 | 20.4%−8.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 117,625 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 75.7% |
Current member
Sir Mark Hendrick · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Hendrick Elected | Labour | 14,006 | 35.0 |
| Michael Lavalette | Other | 8,715 | 21.8 |
| James Elliot | Reform UK | 5,738 | 14.3 |
| Trevor Hart | Conservative | 5,212 | 13.0 |
| Neil Darby | Lib Dems | 3,195 | 8.0 |
| Isabella Metcalf-Riener | Green | 1,751 | 4.4 |
| Yousuf Bhailok | Other | 891 | 2.2 |
| Joseph O'Meachair | Other | 216 | 0.5 |
| David Brooks | Other | 145 | 0.4 |
| Derek Killeen | Other | 124 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Southport Labour, toss-up
- South Ribble Labour, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Chorley Other, safe seat
- West Lancashire Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated