South Ribble
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 73% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Ribble | 30.6% | 29.2% | 25.0% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.4 | 23.1%+6.1 | 20.4%+4.6 | 10.4%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,699 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 78.5% |
Current member
Mr Paul Foster · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Foster Elected | Labour | 19,840 | 42.5 |
| Katherine Fletcher | Conservative | 13,339 | 28.6 |
| Andy Hunter | Reform UK | 8,995 | 19.3 |
| Ange Turner | Lib Dems | 2,972 | 6.4 |
| Stephani Mok | Green | 1,574 | 3.4 |
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated