West Lancashire
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Lancashire | 40.0% | 25.7% | 16.6% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.7 | 23.1%+2.6 | 20.4%−3.8 | 10.4%+0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,950 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 76.6% |
Current member
Ashley Dalton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 14.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Dalton Elected | Labour | 22,305 | 50.5 |
| Mike Prendergast | Conservative | 8,680 | 19.6 |
| Simon Evans | Reform UK | 7,909 | 17.9 |
| Charlotte Houltram | Green | 3,263 | 7.4 |
| Graham Smith | Lib Dems | 2,043 | 4.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Ribble Labour, toss-up
- Southport Labour, toss-up
- Knowsley Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool Walton Labour, safe seat
- Liverpool West Derby Labour, safe seat
- Sefton Central Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated