Southport
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 76%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southport | 28.4% | 24.7% | 22.2% | 12.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.1 | 23.1%+1.6 | 20.4%+1.7 | 10.3%+1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,239 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 48 |
| Employment rate | 82.3% |
Current member
Patrick Hurley · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 3.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Hurley Elected | Labour | 17,252 | 38.3 |
| Damien Moore | Conservative | 11,463 | 25.4 |
| Andrew Lynn | Reform UK | 7,395 | 16.4 |
| Erin Harvey | Lib Dems | 5,868 | 13.0 |
| Edwin Black | Green | 2,159 | 4.8 |
| Sean Halsall | Other | 922 | 2.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- South Ribble Labour, toss-up
- West Lancashire Labour, safe seat
- Preston Labour, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Chorley Other, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated