Wigan
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 71%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Other | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 36.8% | 32.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+12.6 | 23.1%+9.7 | 5.0%+4.7 | 20.4%−10.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,304 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 71.6% |
Current member
Lisa Nandy · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Nandy Elected | Labour | 19,401 | 47.4 |
| Andy Dawber | Reform UK | 9,852 | 24.1 |
| Henry Mitson | Conservative | 4,310 | 10.5 |
| Maureen O'Bern | Other | 3,522 | 8.6 |
| Brian Crombie-Fisher | Lib Dems | 1,692 | 4.1 |
| Jane Leicester | Green | 1,629 | 4.0 |
| Jan Cunliffe | Other | 406 | 1.0 |
| The Zok | Other | 87 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Chorley Other, safe seat
- St Helens North Labour, safe seat
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated