Makerfield
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makerfield | 47.2% | 31.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+22.9 | 23.1%+8.5 | 20.4%−12.9 | 5.0%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,742 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 69.4% |
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 13.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 15.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Simons Elected | Labour | 18,202 | 45.2 |
| Robert Kenyon | Reform UK | 12,803 | 31.8 |
| Simon Finkelstein | Conservative | 4,379 | 10.9 |
| John Skipworth | Lib Dems | 2,735 | 6.8 |
| Maria Deery | Green | 1,776 | 4.4 |
| Thomas Bryer | Other | 368 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
- St Helens North Labour, safe seat
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
- Bolton West Labour, toss-up
- St Helens South and Whiston Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated