St Helens North
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Helens North | 41.4% | 31.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+17.1 | 23.1%+8.7 | 10.4% | 20.4%−10.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,983 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 42 |
| Employment rate | 78.2% |
Current member
David Baines · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.1 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 9.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Baines Elected | Labour | 21,284 | 52.6 |
| Malcolm Webster | Reform UK | 9,115 | 22.5 |
| Jayne Rear | Conservative | 4,507 | 11.1 |
| Daniel Thomas | Green | 3,495 | 8.6 |
| Pat Moloney | Lib Dems | 1,799 | 4.4 |
| Joe Greenhalgh | Other | 274 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St Helens South and Whiston Labour, safe seat
- Makerfield Labour, safe seat
- Wigan Labour, toss-up
- Warrington North Labour, toss-up
- Widnes and Halewood Labour, safe seat
- Leigh and Atherton Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated