Fylde
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fylde | 29.9% | 27.2% | 23.4% | 8.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.5 | 23.1%+4.1 | 24.3%−0.9 | 5.0%+3.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,407 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 78.1% |
Current member
Mr Andrew Snowden · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 1.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Snowden Elected | Conservative | 15,917 | 33.2 |
| Tom Calver | Labour | 15,356 | 32.0 |
| Brook Wimbury | Reform UK | 8,295 | 17.3 |
| Anne Aitken | Other | 4,513 | 9.4 |
| Mark Jewell | Lib Dems | 2,120 | 4.4 |
| Brenden Wilkinson | Green | 1,560 | 3.3 |
| Cheryl Morrison | Other | 199 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Southport Labour, toss-up
- South Ribble Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated