Blackpool South
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 38%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool South | 37.8% | 32.5% | 14.1% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+14.7 | 24.3%+8.2 | 20.4%−6.3 | 10.4%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 110,074 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 41 |
| Employment rate | 69.1% |
Current member
Chris Webb · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.5 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 5.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Webb Elected | Labour | 16,916 | 48.1 |
| Mark Butcher | Reform UK | 10,068 | 28.6 |
| Zak Khan | Conservative | 5,504 | 15.6 |
| Ben Thomas | Green | 1,207 | 3.4 |
| Andrew Cregan | Lib Dems | 1,041 | 3.0 |
| Stephen Black | Other | 261 | 0.7 |
| Kim Knight | Other | 183 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
- Southport Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated