Lancaster and Wyre
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lancaster and Wyre | 33.1% | 27.5% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.9 | 23.1%+4.5 | 20.4%−1.3 | 10.4%+4.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,203 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 85.2% |
Current member
Cat Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cat Smith Elected | Labour | 19,315 | 44.9 |
| Peter Cartridge | Conservative | 10,062 | 23.4 |
| Nigel Alderson | Reform UK | 6,866 | 16.0 |
| Jack Lenox | Green | 5,236 | 12.2 |
| Matt Severn | Lib Dems | 1,529 | 3.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
- Southport Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated