Morecambe and Lunesdale
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | 27.5% | 27.5% | 25.1% | 8.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+4.5 | 24.3%+3.2 | 20.4%+4.7 | 10.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,951 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 83.5% |
Current member
Lizzi Collinge · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lizzi Collinge Elected | Labour | 19,603 | 40.8 |
| David Morris | Conservative | 13,788 | 28.7 |
| Barry Parsons | Reform UK | 7,810 | 16.3 |
| Peter Jackson | Lib Dems | 4,769 | 9.9 |
| Gina Dowding | Green | 2,089 | 4.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dems, safe seat
- Preston Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated