Westmorland and Lonsdale
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westmorland and Lonsdale | 56.8% | 17.2% | 15.3% | 5.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+46.5 | 23.1%−5.9 | 20.4%−5.1 | 10.4%−4.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 91,298 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 51 |
| Employment rate | 87.7% |
Current member
Tim Farron · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 43.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 39.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Farron Elected | Lib Dems | 31,061 | 62.7 |
| Matty Jackman | Conservative | 9,589 | 19.4 |
| James Townley | Reform UK | 4,842 | 9.8 |
| Pippa Smith | Labour | 2,306 | 4.7 |
| Phil Clayton | Green | 1,486 | 3.0 |
| John Studholme | Other | 111 | 0.2 |
| Izzy Solabarrieta | Other | 81 | 0.2 |
| Wendy Long | Other | 57 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrow and Furness Labour, toss-up
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated