Blackpool North and Fleetwood
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackpool North and Fleetwood | 34.7% | 28.1% | 23.8% | 6.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+11.7 | 24.3%+3.9 | 20.4%+3.4 | 10.4%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,938 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 72.4% |
Current member
Lorraine Beavers · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.1 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorraine Beavers Elected | Labour | 16,744 | 40.1 |
| Paul Maynard | Conservative | 12,097 | 28.9 |
| Dan Barker | Reform UK | 9,913 | 23.7 |
| Bill Greene | Lib Dems | 1,318 | 3.2 |
| Tina Rothery | Green | 1,269 | 3.0 |
| James Rust | Other | 174 | 0.4 |
| Gita Gordon | Other | 148 | 0.4 |
| Jan Cresswell | Other | 147 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Fylde Conservative, toss-up
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Preston Labour, toss-up
- Barrow and Furness Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated