Barrow and Furness
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.9 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow and Furness | 30.3% | 28.7% | 26.3% | 7.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+6.0 | 23.1%+5.7 | 20.4%+5.9 | 10.4%−2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,254 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
Michelle Scrogham · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 12.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Scrogham Elected | Labour | 18,537 | 43.9 |
| Simon Fell | Conservative | 13,213 | 31.3 |
| Barry Morgan | Reform UK | 7,035 | 16.7 |
| Adrian Waite | Lib Dems | 1,680 | 4.0 |
| Lorraine Wrennall | Green | 1,466 | 3.5 |
| Lisa Morgan | Other | 290 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dems, safe seat
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Lancaster and Wyre Labour, toss-up
- Whitehaven and Workington Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated