Whitehaven and Workington
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whitehaven and Workington | 37.6% | 32.0% | 17.6% | 7.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+13.3 | 23.1%+8.9 | 20.4%−2.8 | 10.4%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,716 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 78.6% |
Current member
Josh MacAlister · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 5.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh MacAlister Elected | Labour | 22,173 | 53.0 |
| David Surtees | Reform UK | 8,887 | 21.2 |
| Andrew Johnson | Conservative | 8,455 | 20.2 |
| Jill Perry | Green | 1,207 | 2.9 |
| Chris Wills | Lib Dems | 1,118 | 2.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Barrow and Furness Labour, toss-up
- Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dems, safe seat
- Penrith and Solway Labour, toss-up
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood Reform UK, competitive
- Morecambe and Lunesdale Reform UK, toss-up
- Blackpool South Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated