Penrith and Solway
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 58% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penrith and Solway | 28.0% | 26.9% | 25.8% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+3.8 | 23.1%+3.8 | 20.4%+5.4 | 10.3%−2.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 98,216 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 71.0% |
Current member
Markus Campbell-Savours · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.7 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Campbell-Savours Elected | Labour | 19,986 | 40.6 |
| Mark Jenkinson | Conservative | 14,729 | 29.9 |
| Matthew Moody | Reform UK | 7,624 | 15.5 |
| Julia Aglionby | Lib Dems | 4,742 | 9.6 |
| Susan Denham-Smith | Green | 1,730 | 3.5 |
| Chris Johnston | Other | 195 | 0.4 |
| Shaun Long | Other | 156 | 0.3 |
| Roy Ivinson | Other | 119 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Carlisle Reform UK, toss-up
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative, competitive
- Whitehaven and Workington Labour, toss-up
- Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dems, safe seat
- Barrow and Furness Labour, toss-up
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated