Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | SNP | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale | 30.4% | 23.8% | 18.9% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.0 | 2.9%+20.9 | 23.1%−4.1 | 24.3%−14.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
|---|
Current member
David Mundell · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.6 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 6.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Mundell Elected | Conservative | 14,999 | 33.9 |
| Kim Marshall | SNP | 10,757 | 24.3 |
| Daniel Coleman | Labour | 10,140 | 22.9 |
| David Kirkwood | Reform UK | 3,822 | 8.6 |
| Drummond Begg | Lib Dems | 2,800 | 6.3 |
| Dominic Ashmole | Green | 1,488 | 3.4 |
| Gareth Kirk | Other | 208 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Penrith and Solway Labour, toss-up
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South West SNP, safe seat
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
- Carlisle Reform UK, toss-up
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated