Carlisle
Westminster constituency · England · North West
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlisle | 31.8% | 27.3% | 23.4% | 8.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+8.8 | 24.3%+3.1 | 20.4%+3.0 | 10.4%−2.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 103,813 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 83.5% |
Current member
Ms Julie Minns · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 4.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Minns Elected | Labour | 18,129 | 39.4 |
| John Stevenson | Conservative | 12,929 | 28.1 |
| Stephen Ward | Reform UK | 9,295 | 20.2 |
| Brian Wernham | Lib Dems | 2,982 | 6.5 |
| Gavin Hawkton | Green | 1,922 | 4.2 |
| Sean Reed | Other | 303 | 0.7 |
| Rachel Hayton | Other | 244 | 0.5 |
| Thomas Lynestrider | Other | 175 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Penrith and Solway Labour, toss-up
- Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Conservative, competitive
- Whitehaven and Workington Labour, toss-up
- Westmorland and Lonsdale Lib Dems, safe seat
- Barrow and Furness Labour, toss-up
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated