Midlothian
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 12%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midlothian | 31.9% | 24.0% | 20.8% | 7.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.0 | 24.3%−0.3 | 23.1%−2.3 | 20.4%−13.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 77.8% |
|---|
Current member
Kirsty McNeill · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.5 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 7.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsty McNeill Elected | Labour | 21,480 | 48.6 |
| Owen Thompson | SNP | 13,313 | 30.1 |
| Stefan Garbowski | Reform UK | 3,276 | 7.4 |
| Keith Cockburn | Conservative | 3,248 | 7.4 |
| Ross Laird | Lib Dems | 2,589 | 5.9 |
| Daniel Fraser | Other | 259 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
- Edinburgh South West SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated