Edinburgh East and Musselburgh
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | 33.4% | 22.1% | 16.0% | 15.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+30.5 | 24.3%−2.1 | 10.4%+5.6 | 23.1%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 84.8% |
|---|
Current member
Chris Murray · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 11.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Murray Elected | Labour | 18,790 | 41.2 |
| Tommy Sheppard | SNP | 15,075 | 33.1 |
| Amanda Grimm | Green | 4,669 | 10.2 |
| Marie-Clair Munro | Conservative | 2,598 | 5.7 |
| Derek Winton | Reform UK | 2,129 | 4.7 |
| Charles Dundas | Lib Dems | 1,949 | 4.3 |
| Jane Gould | Other | 365 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
- Edinburgh South West SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated