Edinburgh South
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh South | 38.7% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+14.5 | 2.9%+12.7 | 10.4%+3.9 | 23.1%−10.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 78.6% |
|---|
Current member
Ian Murray · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 36.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Murray Elected | Labour | 24,976 | 53.3 |
| Simita Kumar | SNP | 7,725 | 16.5 |
| Jo Phillips | Green | 4,270 | 9.1 |
| Christopher Cowdy | Conservative | 4,001 | 8.5 |
| Andy Williamson | Lib Dems | 2,746 | 5.9 |
| Cameron Rose | Reform UK | 1,845 | 3.9 |
| Alex Martin | Other | 466 | 1.0 |
| Lynne Lyon | Other | 454 | 1.0 |
| Phil Holden | Other | 267 | 0.6 |
| Mark Rowbotham | Other | 76 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South West SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
- Lothian East Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated