Lothian East
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 61%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lothian East | 26.7% | 22.2% | 19.3% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.4 | 2.9%+19.2 | 23.1%−3.7 | 20.4%−9.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 81.9% |
|---|
Current member
Mr Douglas Alexander · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 27.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Alexander Elected | Labour | 23,555 | 49.0 |
| Lyn Jardine | SNP | 10,290 | 21.4 |
| Scott Hamilton | Conservative | 5,535 | 11.5 |
| Robert Davies | Reform UK | 3,039 | 6.3 |
| Duncan Dunlop | Lib Dems | 2,649 | 5.5 |
| Shona McIntosh | Green | 2,477 | 5.2 |
| George Kerevan | Other | 557 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, safe seat
- Midlothian SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Glenrothes and Mid Fife SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated