Glenrothes and Mid Fife
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | 39.1% | 22.6% | 19.8% | 5.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+36.2 | 23.1%−0.4 | 24.3%−4.5 | 10.4%−4.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 72.4% |
|---|
Current member
Richard Baker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 8.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 16.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Baker Elected | Labour | 15,994 | 44.3 |
| John Beare | SNP | 13,040 | 36.1 |
| Ian Smith | Reform UK | 3,528 | 9.8 |
| Debbie MacCallum | Conservative | 1,973 | 5.5 |
| Jill Reilly | Lib Dems | 1,604 | 4.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Edinburgh East and Musselburgh SNP, safe seat
- Perth and Kinross-shire SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South Labour, safe seat
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated