Edinburgh West
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh West | 49.7% | 18.9% | 11.5% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+39.4 | 2.9%+15.9 | 23.1%−11.5 | 10.4%−3.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 83.0% |
|---|
Current member
Christine Jardine · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 31.4 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 30.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Jardine Elected | Lib Dems | 26,645 | 50.8 |
| Euan Hyslop | SNP | 10,175 | 19.4 |
| Michael Davidson | Labour | 7,854 | 15.0 |
| Alastair Shields | Conservative | 2,897 | 5.5 |
| Otto Inglis | Reform UK | 2,209 | 4.2 |
| James Puchowski | Green | 2,100 | 4.0 |
| David Henry | Other | 363 | 0.7 |
| Nick Hornig | Other | 143 | 0.3 |
| Tam Laird | Other | 85 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh South West SNP, safe seat
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh North and Leith SNP, competitive
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, competitive
- Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated