Dunfermline and Dollar
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 25%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunfermline and Dollar | 27.8% | 20.8% | 20.3% | 10.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+24.9 | 24.3%−3.5 | 23.1%−2.8 | 10.4%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
|---|
Current member
Graeme Downie · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 18.5 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 6.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graeme Downie Elected | Labour | 20,336 | 45.7 |
| Naz Anis-Miah | SNP | 12,095 | 27.2 |
| Thomas Heald | Conservative | 3,297 | 7.4 |
| Lauren Buchanan-Quigley | Lib Dems | 3,181 | 7.1 |
| Udo van den Brock | Reform UK | 2,887 | 6.5 |
| Ryan Blackadder | Green | 2,078 | 4.7 |
| Graham Hadley | Other | 324 | 0.7 |
| Danny Smith | Other | 251 | 0.6 |
| George Morton | Other | 88 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP, toss-up
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy SNP, safe seat
- Falkirk SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated