Falkirk
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 9%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 31.9% | 24.5% | 16.5% | 10.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.0 | 23.1%+1.5 | 24.3%−7.8 | 10.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
|---|
Current member
Euan Stainbank · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.7 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 7.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euan Stainbank Elected | Labour | 18,343 | 43.0 |
| Toni Giugliano | SNP | 13,347 | 31.3 |
| James Bundy | Conservative | 3,576 | 8.4 |
| Keith Barrow | Reform UK | 3,375 | 7.9 |
| Rachel Kidd | Green | 1,711 | 4.0 |
| Tim McKay | Lib Dems | 1,092 | 2.6 |
| Mark Tunnicliff | Other | 600 | 1.4 |
| Zohaib Arshad | Other | 581 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, competitive
- Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP, toss-up
- Stirling and Strathallan SNP, safe seat
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, safe seat
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated