Airdrie and Shotts
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 18%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie and Shotts | 32.8% | 25.6% | 22.6% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.9 | 24.3%+1.3 | 23.1%−0.5 | 10.4%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 70.7% |
|---|
Current member
Kenneth Stevenson · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Stevenson Elected | Labour | 18,871 | 51.5 |
| Anum Qaisar | SNP | 11,324 | 30.9 |
| David Hall | Reform UK | 2,971 | 8.1 |
| Alexandra Herdman | Conservative | 1,696 | 4.6 |
| Lewis Younie | Lib Dems | 725 | 2.0 |
| Josh Robertson | Other | 623 | 1.7 |
| John Leckie | Other | 456 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, safe seat
- Falkirk SNP, safe seat
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley SNP, toss-up
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP, safe seat
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated