Hamilton and Clyde Valley
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 45%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | 29.4% | 24.0% | 22.1% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+26.5 | 24.3%−0.2 | 23.1%−1.0 | 20.4%−10.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 72.2% |
|---|
Current member
Imogen Walker · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 22.5 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 5.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imogen Walker Elected | Labour | 21,020 | 50.0 |
| Ross Clark | SNP | 11,548 | 27.4 |
| Richard Nelson | Conservative | 4,589 | 10.9 |
| Lisa Judge | Reform UK | 3,299 | 7.8 |
| Kyle Burns | Lib Dems | 1,511 | 3.6 |
| Christopher Ho | Other | 117 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, safe seat
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, competitive
- East Kilbride and Strathaven SNP, competitive
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Rutherglen SNP, competitive
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated