East Kilbride and Strathaven
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | 30.0% | 22.6% | 22.5% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+27.1 | 24.3%−1.7 | 23.1%−0.5 | 10.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 74.7% |
|---|
Current member
Joani Reid · Independent
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.4 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joani Reid Elected | Labour | 22,682 | 48.6 |
| Grant Costello | SNP | 13,625 | 29.2 |
| Ross Lambie | Conservative | 3,547 | 7.6 |
| David Mills | Reform UK | 3,377 | 7.2 |
| Ann McGuinness | Green | 1,811 | 3.9 |
| Aisha Mir | Lib Dems | 1,074 | 2.3 |
| David Richardson | Other | 505 | 1.1 |
| Donald MacKay | Other | 86 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Rutherglen SNP, competitive
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North East SNP, competitive
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Hamilton and Clyde Valley SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated