Glasgow South
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow South | 35.0% | 20.5% | 17.9% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+32.1 | 24.3%−3.7 | 10.4%+7.5 | 23.1%−9.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 74.4% |
|---|
Current member
Gordon McKee · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 14.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon McKee Elected | Labour | 17,696 | 41.8 |
| Stewart McDonald | SNP | 13,542 | 32.0 |
| Niall Christie | Green | 5,554 | 13.1 |
| Danny Raja | Reform UK | 1,736 | 4.1 |
| Haroun Malik | Conservative | 1,617 | 3.8 |
| Peter McLaughlin | Lib Dems | 1,316 | 3.1 |
| Brian Smith | Other | 473 | 1.1 |
| Dhruva Kumar | Other | 444 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
- Rutherglen SNP, competitive
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated