Rutherglen
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rutherglen | 32.6% | 25.6% | 19.2% | 6.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.6 | 24.3%+1.4 | 23.1%−3.9 | 10.4%−4.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.4% |
|---|
Current member
Michael Shanks · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 20.6 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 7.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Shanks Elected | Labour | 21,460 | 50.5 |
| Katy Loudon | SNP | 12,693 | 29.9 |
| David Stark | Reform UK | 2,685 | 6.3 |
| Gary Burns | Conservative | 2,420 | 5.7 |
| Gloria Adebo | Lib Dems | 1,714 | 4.0 |
| Bill Bonnar | Other | 541 | 1.3 |
| Jim Eadie | Other | 497 | 1.2 |
| John McArthur | Other | 321 | 0.8 |
| Andrew Daly | Other | 153 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow North East SNP, competitive
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- East Kilbride and Strathaven SNP, competitive
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated