Glasgow South West
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glasgow South West | 37.1% | 22.3% | 16.4% | 12.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+34.2 | 24.3%−1.9 | 23.1%−6.7 | 10.4%+2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 60.2% |
|---|
Current member
Dr Zubir Ahmed · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 9.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 14.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zubir Ahmed Elected | Labour | 15,552 | 43.6 |
| Chris Stephens | SNP | 12,267 | 34.4 |
| John Hamelink | Green | 2,727 | 7.6 |
| Morag McRae | Reform UK | 2,236 | 6.3 |
| Mamun Rashid | Conservative | 1,387 | 3.9 |
| Paul McGarry | Lib Dems | 958 | 2.7 |
| Tony Osy | Other | 542 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated