Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paisley and Renfrewshire North | 35.0% | 21.5% | 21.1% | 9.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+32.0 | 24.3%−2.7 | 23.1%−1.9 | 10.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 68.9% |
|---|
Current member
Alison Taylor · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.3 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 12.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Taylor Elected | Labour | 19,561 | 47.1 |
| Gavin Newlands | SNP | 13,228 | 31.9 |
| Andrew Scott | Reform UK | 3,228 | 7.8 |
| David McGonigle | Conservative | 2,659 | 6.4 |
| Jen Bell | Green | 1,469 | 3.5 |
| Grant Toghill | Lib Dems | 1,374 | 3.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- West Dunbartonshire SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated