Paisley and Renfrewshire South
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | 34.3% | 22.8% | 19.3% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+31.3 | 24.3%−1.4 | 23.1%−3.7 | 10.4%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 77.1% |
|---|
Current member
Johanna Baxter · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 11.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Johanna Baxter Elected | Labour | 19,583 | 47.4 |
| Jacqueline Cameron | SNP | 13,056 | 31.6 |
| Jim McIlroy | Reform UK | 2,956 | 7.2 |
| Alec Leishman | Conservative | 2,219 | 5.4 |
| Athol Bond | Green | 1,724 | 4.2 |
| Jack Clark | Lib Dems | 1,315 | 3.2 |
| Paul Mack | Other | 317 | 0.8 |
| Mark Turnbull | Other | 113 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, safe seat
- West Dunbartonshire SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated