Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | 34.8% | 22.5% | 18.7% | 8.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+31.8 | 24.3%−1.8 | 23.1%−4.4 | 10.4%−2.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 70.1% |
|---|
Current member
Martin McCluskey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 12.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin McCluskey Elected | Labour | 18,931 | 46.9 |
| Ronnie Cowan | SNP | 12,560 | 31.1 |
| Ted Runciman | Conservative | 2,863 | 7.1 |
| Simon Moorehead | Reform UK | 2,476 | 6.1 |
| Ross Stalker | Lib Dems | 1,259 | 3.1 |
| Iain Hamilton | Green | 1,173 | 2.9 |
| Christopher McEleny | Other | 723 | 1.8 |
| John Burleigh | Other | 365 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Paisley and Renfrewshire South SNP, safe seat
- West Dunbartonshire SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- East Renfrewshire SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated