East Renfrewshire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Renfrewshire | 28.6% | 19.5% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+25.7 | 23.1%−3.5 | 24.3%−4.8 | 20.4%−5.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.1% |
|---|
Current member
Blair McDougall · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 16.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 8.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blair McDougall Elected | Labour | 21,935 | 43.7 |
| Kirsten Oswald | SNP | 13,514 | 26.9 |
| Sandesh Gulhane | Conservative | 8,494 | 16.9 |
| Matt Alexander | Reform UK | 2,360 | 4.7 |
| Karen Sharkey | Green | 1,510 | 3.0 |
| Alan Grant | Lib Dems | 1,150 | 2.3 |
| Maria Reid | Other | 487 | 1.0 |
| Allan Steele | Other | 481 | 1.0 |
| Colette Walker | Other | 296 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- Paisley and Renfrewshire North SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated