Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | 39.3% | 21.1% | 19.6% | 8.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+36.4 | 23.1%−1.9 | 24.3%−4.7 | 10.4%−1.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 75.8% |
|---|
Current member
Katrina Murray · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.1 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 17.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katrina Murray Elected | Labour | 18,513 | 45.2 |
| Stuart McDonald | SNP | 14,369 | 35.1 |
| Billy Ross | Reform UK | 3,167 | 7.7 |
| Satbir Gill | Conservative | 1,939 | 4.7 |
| Anne McCrossan | Green | 1,694 | 4.1 |
| Adam Harley | Lib Dems | 1,294 | 3.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North East SNP, competitive
- Rutherglen SNP, competitive
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, competitive
- Mid Dunbartonshire Lib Dems, safe seat
- Stirling and Strathallan SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated