Stirling and Strathallan
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stirling and Strathallan | 32.7% | 19.7% | 16.6% | 12.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+29.8 | 23.1%−3.4 | 20.4%−3.8 | 24.3%−12.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 70.5% |
|---|
Current member
Chris Kane · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 13.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Kane Elected | Labour | 16,856 | 33.9 |
| Alyn Smith | SNP | 15,462 | 31.1 |
| Neil Benny | Conservative | 9,469 | 19.0 |
| Bill McDonald | Reform UK | 3,145 | 6.3 |
| Hamish Taylor | Lib Dems | 2,530 | 5.1 |
| Andrew Adam | Green | 2,320 | 4.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Falkirk SNP, safe seat
- Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch SNP, safe seat
- Coatbridge and Bellshill SNP, safe seat
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, competitive
- Glasgow North East SNP, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated