Alloa and Grangemouth
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 72%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa and Grangemouth | 29.0% | 25.0% | 17.4% | 9.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+26.0 | 23.1%+1.9 | 24.3%−6.9 | 10.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 73.8% |
|---|
Current member
Brian Leishman · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 14.9 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 4.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Leishman Elected | Labour | 18,039 | 43.8 |
| John Nicolson | SNP | 11,917 | 28.9 |
| Richard Fairley | Reform UK | 3,804 | 9.2 |
| Rachel Nunn | Conservative | 3,127 | 7.6 |
| Nariese Whyte | Green | 1,421 | 3.4 |
| Adrian May | Lib Dems | 1,151 | 2.8 |
| Eva Comrie | Other | 881 | 2.1 |
| Kenny MacAskill | Other | 638 | 1.5 |
| Tom Flanagan | Other | 223 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bathgate and Linlithgow SNP, toss-up
- Falkirk SNP, safe seat
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, competitive
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Airdrie and Shotts SNP, competitive
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated