Bathgate and Linlithgow
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | 26.8% | 24.2% | 21.7% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+23.9 | 23.1%+1.2 | 24.3%−2.6 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 83.2% |
|---|
Current member
Kirsteen Sullivan · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 19.8 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kirsteen Sullivan Elected | Labour | 19,774 | 47.0 |
| Martyn Day | SNP | 11,451 | 27.2 |
| Jamie McNamee | Reform UK | 3,524 | 8.4 |
| Lynn Munro | Conservative | 3,144 | 7.5 |
| Sally Pattle | Lib Dems | 2,171 | 5.2 |
| Simon Jay | Green | 1,390 | 3.3 |
| John Hannah | Other | 382 | 0.9 |
| Stuart McArthur | Other | 229 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Alloa and Grangemouth SNP, toss-up
- Livingston SNP, safe seat
- Dunfermline and Dollar SNP, competitive
- Falkirk SNP, safe seat
- Edinburgh West Lib Dems, safe seat
- Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated