Mid Dunbartonshire
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | SNP | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Dunbartonshire | 39.3% | 25.6% | 12.3% | 8.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.0 | 2.9%+22.7 | 23.1%−10.8 | 24.3%−15.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 79.1% |
|---|
Current member
Susan Murray · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 13.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Susan Murray Elected | Lib Dems | 22,349 | 42.4 |
| Amy Callaghan | SNP | 12,676 | 24.0 |
| Lorna Dougall | Labour | 10,993 | 20.8 |
| Alix Mathieson | Conservative | 2,452 | 4.7 |
| David McNabb | Reform UK | 2,099 | 4.0 |
| Carolynn Scrimgeour | Green | 1,720 | 3.3 |
| Ray James | Other | 449 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glasgow North SNP, toss-up
- Glasgow West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow East SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow North East SNP, competitive
- Glasgow South West SNP, safe seat
- Glasgow South SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated